2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jaire Alexander (age 21.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #1-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Eli Apple (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Zack Sanchez, Maurice Canady, Kalan Reed. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #27 sits within 6 spots of the room's #21 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Denzel Ward (age 21.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #23 (range #1-#77, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Kevon Seymour (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Eric Murray (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #11 — don't pay sticker price. The 12-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.