3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justin Jones (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #115-#169, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Maliek Collins (Starter), Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). Ceiling is Darius Philon (Franchise); floor is Matthew Ioannidis (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #124 — don't pay sticker price. The 18-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects R.J. McIntosh (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #115-#119, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #103 — don't pay sticker price. The 14-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects B.J. Hill (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #81 (range #68-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Javon Hargrave (Starter), Quinton Jefferson (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Quinton Jefferson (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #81 sits within 2 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.