2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 68-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 8 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Bawden (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #170-#276, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dwayne Washington (Contributor), Duke Johnson (Franchise), Keenan Reynolds. Ceiling is Todd Gurley (Franchise); floor is Dwayne Washington (Contributor). Drafted #237 by DET in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 141 spots ahead of the room (board #223 vs consensus #364) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Mark Walton (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #148-#162, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Howard (Starter), Paul Perkins (Starter), David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Paul Perkins (Starter); floor is Alex Collins (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #79 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 76-spot markdown. A 57% bust probability backs the 76-spot markdown.