3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zaire Franklin (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #68-#162, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Elandon Roberts (Starter), Max Valles. Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 688 spots ahead of the room (board #115 vs consensus #803), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Shaquille Leonard (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #50-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #86 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Devante Downs (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #209 (range #163-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Denzel Perryman (Franchise), Kamu Grugier-Hill (Bust), Jonathan Woodard. Ceiling is Denzel Perryman (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kamu Grugier-Hill, Trevor Bates. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 833 spots ahead of the room (board #209 vs consensus #1042), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.