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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
MA
Matthew Adams
LB · Houston
22.4 yo · — · —
DD
Devante Downs
LB · California
22.5 yo · — · —
ZF
Zaire Franklin
LB · Syracuse
21.8 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Adams
Predicted pick
#136
range #106–#266
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Devante Downs
Predicted pick
#209
range #126–#260
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Zaire Franklin
Predicted pick
#115
range #85–#245
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Adams· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Devante Downs· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Zaire Franklin· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Adams53
  • AthleticismMatthew Adams48
  • AgeMatthew Adams98
  • ConsensusMatthew Adams6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Adams50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Adams50
  • WorkloadMatthew Adams100
  • RAS × productionMatthew Adams0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Adams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Devante Downs
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Zaire Franklin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Adams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Devante Downs
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Zaire Franklin
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew AdamsDevante DownsZaire Franklin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Adams

+0.04 age; −0.02 boards with him top-100; +0.02 production trajectory

Devante Downs

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.02 scout consensus; −0.02 HS recruit rating

Zaire Franklin

+0.03 age; +0.02 charting run stop per opp career; −0.02 boards with him top-100