3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Bilal Nichols (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #184-#190, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #163 — don't pay sticker price. The 24-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Kendrick Norton (age 20.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #124-#214, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Maliek Collins (Starter), Christian Covington (Franchise), Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #138 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 31-spot markdown. The 31-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Kahlil McKenzie (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #96-#124, wide band). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 196 spots ahead of the room (board #110 vs consensus #306), and at a 35% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.