Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2018 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
DE
DeShon Elliott
S · Texas
21.0 yo · 6'2" · 205 lb
TF
Tre Flowers
S · Oklahoma St.
22.9 yo · 6'3" · 200 lb
JI
Jessie Bates III
S · Wake Forest
21.2 yo · 6'2" · 195 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

DeShon Elliott
Predicted pick
#74
range #18–#195
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#122
on 15 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Tre Flowers
Predicted pick
#201
range #118–#252
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Jessie Bates III
Predicted pick
#103
range #47–#224
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
Consensus rank
#78
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$22Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • DeShon Elliott· CB / S
  • Tre Flowers· CB / S
  • Jessie Bates III· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDeShon Elliott50
  • AthleticismDeShon Elliott47
  • AgeJessie Bates III87
  • ConsensusDeShon Elliott23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)DeShon Elliott50
  • Breakout ageDeShon Elliott50
  • WorkloadDeShon Elliott100
  • RAS × productionJessie Bates III51

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
DeShon Elliott
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tre Flowers
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jessie Bates III
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

DeShon Elliott
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tre Flowers
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jessie Bates III
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
DeShon ElliottTre FlowersJessie Bates III· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

DeShon Elliott

+0.03 charting coverage grade career avg; −0.03 production trajectory; −0.02 charting catch rate allowed avg

Tre Flowers

−0.03 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.02 scout consensus

Jessie Bates III

+0.03 age; +0.02 number of boards ranking him; +0.02 HS recruit rating