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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
JB
Joey Bosa
EDGE · Ohio St.
20.8 yo · 6'5" · 269 lb
SL
Shaq Lawson
EDGE · Clemson
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 269 lb
CT
Charles Tapper
EDGE · Oklahoma
23.0 yo · 6'3" · 271 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joey Bosa
Predicted pick
#8
range #1–#52
Bust probability
2%
Consensus rank
#1
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$34Mmodel
Shaq Lawson
Predicted pick
#31
range #13–#74
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#7
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Charles Tapper
Predicted pick
#133
range #59–#231
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
#148
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joey Bosa· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaq Lawson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Charles Tapper· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoey Bosa50
  • AthleticismCharles Tapper89
  • AgeJoey Bosa66
  • ConsensusShaq Lawson99
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joey Bosa50
  • Breakout ageJoey Bosa50
  • WorkloadJoey Bosa50
  • RAS × productionJoey Bosa100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Joey Bosa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaq Lawson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Charles Tapper
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joey Bosa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaq Lawson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Charles Tapper
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Joey BosaShaq LawsonCharles Tapper· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joey Bosa

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; −0.04 charting total career snaps

Shaq Lawson

+0.07 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Charles Tapper

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 athleticism (combine)