2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 66-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 7 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Yannick Ngakoue (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #155-#175, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 44-spot markdown. The 44-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Dean Lowry (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #92-#106, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 90 spots ahead of the room (board #99 vs consensus #188), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.