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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
KC
Kenny Clark
DT · UCLA
20.6 yo · 6'3" · 314 lb
AB
Andrew Billings
DT · Baylor
21.1 yo · 6'1" · 311 lb
MC
Maliek Collins
DT · Nebraska
21.1 yo · 6'2" · 311 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kenny Clark
Predicted pick
#20
range #10–#30
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#25
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel
Andrew Billings
Predicted pick
#43
range #33–#53
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
#22
on 19 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Maliek Collins
Predicted pick
#53
range #43–#63
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#136
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kenny Clark· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Andrew Billings· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Maliek Collins· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKenny Clark50
  • AthleticismKenny Clark55
  • AgeMaliek Collins86
  • ConsensusKenny Clark57
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kenny Clark50
  • Breakout ageKenny Clark50
  • WorkloadKenny Clark50
  • RAS × productionKenny Clark100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kenny Clark
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Andrew Billings
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Maliek Collins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kenny Clark
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Andrew Billings
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #122 by CIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Maliek Collins
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    12 boards place him at mean rank #85; model has him #53 — a 32-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kenny ClarkAndrew BillingsMaliek Collins· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kenny Clark

Draftanomics projects Kenny Clark (age 20.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #20 (range #10-#30, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a value lean: #20 against a consensus #32 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Andrew Billings

Draftanomics projects Andrew Billings (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #33-#53, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #122 by CIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #28 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Maliek Collins

Draftanomics projects Maliek Collins (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #43-#63, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #53 vs consensus #85), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.