2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 38 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cody Kessler (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #244-#248, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #209 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 37-spot markdown. The 37-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Jeff Driskel (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #235-#239, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 8.3 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #207 by SFO in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #214 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.