3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jerald Hawkins as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #130-#144, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 67-spot markdown. The 67-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Shon Coleman as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #29-#43, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #72), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Taylor Decker as a first-round pick at #23 (range #16-#30, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #23 sits within 9 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.