3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Adam Gotsis (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #215-#235, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #68 and the model won't take him before #225 — a 157-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Zettel (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #232-#246, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #239 — a 117-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Quinton Jefferson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #159-#179, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #169 sits within 4 spots of the room's #173 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.