3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Brown (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #150 (range #148-#152, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. School SP+ rating -7.4 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #40 (1=hardest). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 145 spots ahead of the room (board #150 vs consensus #295), and at a 12% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Daryl Worley (age 21.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #82-#110, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.64s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #96 sits within 9 spots of the room's #87 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Artie Burns (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #78 (range #64-#92, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #78 sits within 7 spots of the room's #71 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.