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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
EE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB · Ohio St.
20.8 yo · 6'0" · 225 lb
DH
Derrick Henry
RB · Alabama
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 247 lb
KD
Kenneth Dixon
RB · Louisiana Tech
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 215 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ezekiel Elliott
Predicted pick
#4
range #2–#28
Bust probability
9%
Consensus rank
#6
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$24Mmodel
Derrick Henry
Predicted pick
#55
range #29–#159
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#44
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel
Kenneth Dixon
Predicted pick
#19
range #28–#154
Bust probability
41%
Consensus rank
#81
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ezekiel Elliott· RB / WR / TE
  • Derrick Henry· RB / WR / TE
  • Kenneth Dixon· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKenneth Dixon67
  • AthleticismEzekiel Elliott45
  • AgeKenneth Dixon84
  • ConsensusEzekiel Elliott94
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ezekiel Elliott50
  • Breakout ageEzekiel Elliott50
  • WorkloadEzekiel Elliott100
  • RAS × productionEzekiel Elliott0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ezekiel Elliott
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Derrick Henry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kenneth Dixon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ezekiel Elliott
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Derrick Henry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kenneth Dixon
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ezekiel ElliottDerrick HenryKenneth Dixon· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ezekiel Elliott

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.05 charting total career snaps

Derrick Henry

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.05 production trajectory; −0.05 charting total career snaps

Kenneth Dixon

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 charting int yards per route run career avg