3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Connor McGovern as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #72 (range #65-#79, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 61 spots ahead of the room (board #72 vs consensus #133), and at a 3% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Joe Dahl as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #172-#192, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #143 and the model won't take him before #182 — a 39-spot markdown. The 39-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Wes Schweitzer as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #199-#227, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #213 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.