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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (G)
NM
Nick Martin
G · Notre Dame
— · — · —
VA
Vadal Alexander
G · LSU
— · — · —
GI
Germain Ifedi
G · Texas A&M
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Nick Martin
Predicted pick
#76
range #29–#194
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#94
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel
Vadal Alexander
Predicted pick
#88
range #41–#206
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
#77
on 9 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Germain Ifedi
Predicted pick
#46
range #20–#150
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#58
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Nick Martin· Offensive line
  • Vadal Alexander· Offensive line
  • Germain Ifedi· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionNick Martin50
  • AthleticismNick Martin43
  • AgeNick Martin63
  • ConsensusGermain Ifedi49
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Nick Martin50
  • Breakout ageNick Martin50
  • WorkloadNick Martin50
  • RAS × productionNick Martin35

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Nick Martin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Vadal Alexander
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Germain Ifedi
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Nick Martin
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Vadal Alexander
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Germain Ifedi
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Nick MartinVadal AlexanderGermain Ifedi· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Nick Martin

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 lowest board ranking

Vadal Alexander

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.03 HS recruit rating

Germain Ifedi

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting gap run block grade