3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kolby Listenbee (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #219-#223, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #192 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #221 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Will Fuller (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #57-#77, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The 20-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Michael Thomas (age 23.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #79 (range #77-#81, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #40 and the model won't take him before #79 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.