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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
BS
Beau Sandland
TE · Montana St.
23.2 yo · 6'4" · 253 lb
SD
Seth Devalve
TE · Princeton
23.2 yo · — · —
TH
Temarrick Hemingway
TE · South Carolina St.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Beau Sandland
Predicted pick
#194
range #177–#211
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Seth Devalve
Predicted pick
#200
range #179–#221
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Temarrick Hemingway
Predicted pick
#145
range #124–#166
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Beau Sandland· RB / WR / TE
  • Seth Devalve· RB / WR / TE
  • Temarrick Hemingway· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBeau Sandland0
  • AthleticismBeau Sandland45
  • AgeTemarrick Hemingway70
  • ConsensusTemarrick Hemingway7
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Beau Sandland50
  • Breakout ageBeau Sandland50
  • WorkloadBeau Sandland100
  • RAS × productionBeau Sandland0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Beau Sandland
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Seth Devalve
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Temarrick Hemingway
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Beau Sandland
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #252 by CAR in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • TE slow 40 (4.74s)
    40-yard dash of 4.74s — below-average separation speed for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #137; model has him #194 — a 57-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Seth Devalve
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #976; model has him #200 — a 776-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Temarrick Hemingway
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #242; model has him #145 — a 97-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Beau SandlandSeth DevalveTemarrick Hemingway· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Beau Sandland

Draftanomics projects Beau Sandland (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #177-#211, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #252 by CAR in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #137 and the model won't take him before #194 — a 57-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Seth Devalve

Draftanomics projects Seth Devalve (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #179-#221, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 776 spots ahead of the room (board #200 vs consensus #976), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Temarrick Hemingway

Draftanomics projects Temarrick Hemingway (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #124-#166, wide band). Bust probability sits at 44% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 97 spots ahead of the room (board #145 vs consensus #242), and at a 44% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.