3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zac Brooks (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #253 (range #251-#255, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. Drafted #247 by SEA in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 505 spots ahead of the room (board #253 vs consensus #758) — but size the bet for the 66% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Devontae Booker (age 23.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #43-#47, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 30 spots ahead of the room (board #45 vs consensus #75), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects DeAndre Washington (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #210 (range #208-#212, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 450 → 1103 → 1492. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #210 sits within 2 spots of the room's #212 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.