3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Clayton Fejedelem (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #97 (range #80-#114, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 189 spots ahead of the room (board #97 vs consensus #286), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Kevin Byard (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #94 (range #80-#108, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #94 against a consensus #106 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects DeAndre Houston-Carson (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #201 (range #184-#218, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #107 and the model won't take him before #201 — a 94-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.