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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
JW
Jonathan Woodard
EDGE · Central Arkansas
22.6 yo · — · —
YN
Yannick Ngakoue
EDGE · Maryland
21.1 yo · 6'2" · 252 lb
DL
Dean Lowry
EDGE · Northwestern
21.9 yo · 6'6" · 296 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jonathan Woodard
Predicted pick
#143
range #113–#273
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Yannick Ngakoue
Predicted pick
#165
range #52–#249
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
#129
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel
Dean Lowry
Predicted pick
#99
range #43–#220
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#163
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jonathan Woodard· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Yannick Ngakoue· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dean Lowry· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJonathan Woodard50
  • AthleticismJonathan Woodard55
  • AgeDean Lowry91
  • ConsensusDean Lowry21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jonathan Woodard50
  • Breakout ageJonathan Woodard50
  • WorkloadJonathan Woodard50
  • RAS × productionJonathan Woodard100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jonathan Woodard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Yannick Ngakoue
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dean Lowry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jonathan Woodard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Yannick Ngakoue
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dean Lowry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jonathan WoodardYannick NgakoueDean Lowry· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jonathan Woodard

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Yannick Ngakoue

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Dean Lowry

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg