2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 31-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marqui Christian (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #107-#149, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 310 spots ahead of the room (board #128 vs consensus #438), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Clayton Fejedelem (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #97 (range #80-#114, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 189 spots ahead of the room (board #97 vs consensus #286), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.