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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
WS
Wendell Smallwood
RB · West Virginia
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
DJ
Darius Jackson
RB · Eastern Michigan
22.4 yo · — · —
TE
Tyler Ervin
RB · San Jose St.
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 192 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Wendell Smallwood
Predicted pick
#195
range #193–#197
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Darius Jackson
Predicted pick
#248
range #246–#250
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Tyler Ervin
Predicted pick
#175
range #173–#177
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#155
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Wendell Smallwood· RB / WR / TE
  • Darius Jackson· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyler Ervin· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWendell Smallwood0
  • AthleticismTyler Ervin93
  • AgeWendell Smallwood84
  • ConsensusWendell Smallwood27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Wendell Smallwood50
  • Breakout ageWendell Smallwood50
  • WorkloadWendell Smallwood100
  • RAS × productionTyler Ervin73

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Wendell Smallwood
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darius Jackson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyler Ervin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Wendell Smallwood
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Darius Jackson
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #216 by DAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #597; model has him #248 — a 349-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 12 → 201 → 222 → 1078. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Tyler Ervin
Risks
  • One-year wonder
    Production concentrated in one season: best 1601 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 674. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.166 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #128; model has him #175 — a 47-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Wendell SmallwoodDarius JacksonTyler Ervin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Wendell Smallwood

Draftanomics projects Wendell Smallwood (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #193-#197, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #175 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.

Darius Jackson

Draftanomics projects Darius Jackson (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #246-#250, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 12 → 201 → 222 → 1078. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #216 by DAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 349 spots ahead of the room (board #248 vs consensus #597) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Tyler Ervin

Draftanomics projects Tyler Ervin (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #173-#177, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 1601 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 674. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #128 and the model won't take him before #175 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.