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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
WS
Wendell Smallwood
RB · West Virginia
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
JH
Jordan Howard
RB · Indiana
21.5 yo · 6'0" · 230 lb
KR
Keenan Reynolds
RB · Navy
22.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Wendell Smallwood
Predicted pick
#195
range #193–#197
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Jordan Howard
Predicted pick
#136
range #134–#138
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#76
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Keenan Reynolds
Predicted pick
#227
range #225–#229
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Wendell Smallwood· RB / WR / TE
  • Jordan Howard· RB / WR / TE
  • Keenan Reynolds· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWendell Smallwood0
  • AthleticismWendell Smallwood45
  • AgeKeenan Reynolds97
  • ConsensusWendell Smallwood27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Wendell Smallwood50
  • Breakout ageWendell Smallwood50
  • WorkloadWendell Smallwood100
  • RAS × productionWendell Smallwood0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Wendell Smallwood
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Howard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Keenan Reynolds
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Wendell Smallwood
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Jordan Howard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #70; model has him #136 — a 66-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Keenan Reynolds
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #182 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #335; model has him #227 — a 108-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 12.1 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Wendell SmallwoodJordan HowardKeenan Reynolds· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Wendell Smallwood

Draftanomics projects Wendell Smallwood (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #193-#197, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #175 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.

Jordan Howard

Draftanomics projects Jordan Howard (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #134-#138, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #136 — a 66-spot markdown. The 66-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Keenan Reynolds

Draftanomics projects Keenan Reynolds (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #225-#229, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 12.1 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #182 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 108 spots ahead of the room (board #227 vs consensus #335) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.