3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Demarcus Robinson (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #114-#118, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 56 spots ahead of the room (board #116 vs consensus #172), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Ricardo Louis (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #145-#149, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 716 receiving yards vs 4-season mean 334. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 96 spots ahead of the room (board #147 vs consensus #243), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Kolby Listenbee (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #219-#223, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #192 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #221 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.