3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Su'a Cravens (age 20.8 at draft) as a first-round pick at #28 (range #18-#38, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The call is a value lean: #28 against a consensus #43 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 48% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Jaylon Smith (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #16 (range #6-#26, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #34 by DAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #16 against a consensus #38 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Aaron Wallace (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #188 (range #174-#202, wide band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 579 spots ahead of the room (board #188 vs consensus #767) — but size the bet for the 48% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.