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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT, EDGE, OLB)
RN
Robert Nkemdiche
DT · Mississippi
21.6 yo · 6'3" · 294 lb
JB
Joey Bosa
EDGE · Ohio St.
20.8 yo · 6'5" · 269 lb
MJ
Myles Jack
OLB · UCLA
20.6 yo · 6'1" · 245 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Robert Nkemdiche
Predicted pick
#26
range #14–#70
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#19
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Joey Bosa
Predicted pick
#8
range #1–#52
Bust probability
2%
Consensus rank
#1
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$34Mmodel
Myles Jack
Predicted pick
#5
range #1–#12
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#2
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Robert Nkemdiche· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Joey Bosa· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Myles Jack· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionRobert Nkemdiche50
  • AthleticismRobert Nkemdiche75
  • AgeRobert Nkemdiche79
  • ConsensusMyles Jack99
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Robert Nkemdiche50
  • Breakout ageRobert Nkemdiche50
  • WorkloadRobert Nkemdiche50
  • RAS × productionRobert Nkemdiche100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Robert Nkemdiche
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joey Bosa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Myles Jack
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Robert Nkemdiche
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joey Bosa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Myles Jack
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Robert NkemdicheJoey BosaMyles Jack· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Robert Nkemdiche

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; −0.04 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Joey Bosa

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; −0.04 charting total career snaps

Myles Jack

Draftanomics projects Myles Jack (age 20.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #5 (range #1-#12, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #5 and the room's #6 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.