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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
SR
Sheldon Rankins
DT · Louisville
22.1 yo · 6'1" · 299 lb
KC
Kenny Clark
DT · UCLA
20.6 yo · 6'3" · 314 lb
JH
Javon Hargrave
DT · South Carolina St.
23.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sheldon Rankins
Predicted pick
#18
range #6–#62
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#11
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Kenny Clark
Predicted pick
#20
range #8–#64
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#25
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel
Javon Hargrave
Predicted pick
#54
range #28–#158
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
#78
on 13 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sheldon Rankins· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Kenny Clark· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Javon Hargrave· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSheldon Rankins50
  • AthleticismSheldon Rankins55
  • AgeSheldon Rankins81
  • ConsensusSheldon Rankins91
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sheldon Rankins50
  • Breakout ageSheldon Rankins50
  • WorkloadSheldon Rankins50
  • RAS × productionSheldon Rankins100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Sheldon Rankins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kenny Clark
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Javon Hargrave
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sheldon Rankins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kenny Clark
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Javon Hargrave
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Sheldon RankinsKenny ClarkJavon Hargrave· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sheldon Rankins

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.03 charting total career snaps

Kenny Clark

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting coverage grade career avg

Javon Hargrave

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.02 HS recruit rating