3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Prince Charles Iworah (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #217 (range #200-#234, wide band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. School SP+ 10.8 (CONFERENCE USA). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 450 spots ahead of the room (board #217 vs consensus #667), and at a 21% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Blake Countess (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #216-#244, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 134 spots ahead of the room (board #230 vs consensus #364), and at a 12% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Zack Sanchez (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #178 (range #171-#185, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #178 — a 88-spot markdown. The 88-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.