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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DL
Devin Lucien
WR · Arizona St.
22.8 yo · — · —
CM
Chris Moore
WR · Cincinnati
22.9 yo · 6'1" · 206 lb
DA
Demarcus Ayers
WR · Houston
21.8 yo · 5'9" · 182 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Devin Lucien
Predicted pick
#249
range #247–#251
Bust probability
77%
Consensus rank
#152
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chris Moore
Predicted pick
#187
range #185–#189
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
#146
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Demarcus Ayers
Predicted pick
#207
range #205–#209
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Devin Lucien· RB / WR / TE
  • Chris Moore· RB / WR / TE
  • Demarcus Ayers· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDevin Lucien0
  • AthleticismDevin Lucien45
  • AgeDemarcus Ayers85
  • ConsensusDevin Lucien27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Devin Lucien50
  • Breakout ageDevin Lucien50
  • WorkloadDevin Lucien100
  • RAS × productionDevin Lucien0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Devin Lucien
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chris Moore
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Demarcus Ayers
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Devin Lucien
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #225 by NWE in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    2 boards place him at mean rank #426; model has him #249 — a 178-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Moore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #68; model has him #187 — a 120-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in receiving yards: 113 → 645 → 673 → 870. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Demarcus Ayers
Risks
  • WR slow 40 (4.72s)
    40-yard dash of 4.72s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • One-year wonder
    Production concentrated in one season: best 1222 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 562. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in receiving yards: 130 → 335 → 1222. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Devin LucienChris MooreDemarcus Ayers· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Devin Lucien

Draftanomics projects Devin Lucien (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #247-#251, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Drafted #225 by NWE in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 178 spots ahead of the room (board #249 vs consensus #426) — but size the bet for the 77% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Chris Moore

Draftanomics projects Chris Moore (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #185-#189, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 113 → 645 → 673 → 870. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #68 and the model won't take him before #187 — a 120-spot markdown. The 120-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Demarcus Ayers

Draftanomics projects Demarcus Ayers (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #205-#209, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 130 → 335 → 1222. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 40-yard dash of 4.72s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a value lean: #207 against a consensus #232 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with wr slow 40 (4.72s) the tax on that edge.