3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kentrell Brothers (age 23.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #11 (range #4-#18, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 78 spots ahead of the room (board #11 vs consensus #89), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Tyrone Holmes (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #96-#124, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #110 vs consensus #144), and at a 43% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Stephen Weatherly (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #120 (range #110-#130, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 70 spots ahead of the room (board #120 vs consensus #190), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.