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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
KD
Kenneth Dixon
RB · Louisiana Tech
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 215 lb
PP
Paul Perkins
RB · UCLA
21.4 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
JH
Jordan Howard
RB · Indiana
21.5 yo · 6'0" · 230 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kenneth Dixon
Predicted pick
#19
range #28–#154
Bust probability
41%
Consensus rank
#81
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Paul Perkins
Predicted pick
#64
range #8–#185
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#114
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Jordan Howard
Predicted pick
#136
range #56–#244
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#76
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kenneth Dixon· RB / WR / TE
  • Paul Perkins· RB / WR / TE
  • Jordan Howard· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKenneth Dixon67
  • AthleticismKenneth Dixon45
  • AgeKenneth Dixon84
  • ConsensusKenneth Dixon27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kenneth Dixon50
  • Breakout ageKenneth Dixon50
  • WorkloadKenneth Dixon100
  • RAS × productionPaul Perkins75

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kenneth Dixon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Paul Perkins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Howard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kenneth Dixon
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Paul Perkins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jordan Howard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kenneth DixonPaul PerkinsJordan Howard· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kenneth Dixon

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 charting int yards per route run career avg

Paul Perkins

−0.05 charting total career snaps; +0.04 charting rush grade; +0.02 lowest board ranking

Jordan Howard

−0.06 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age