2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 49-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 12 points lower and $6M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Willie Henry (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #102 (range #95-#109, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #132 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #102 sits within 3 spots of the room's #99 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 43% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Maliek Collins (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #43-#63, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #53 vs consensus #85), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.