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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
AL
Alex Lewis
OT · Nebraska
— · 6'6" · 312 lb
WB
Willie Beavers
OT · Western Michigan
— · — · —
JH
Joe Haeg
OT · North Dakota St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Alex Lewis
Predicted pick
#75
range #19–#196
Bust probability· rough estimate
1%
Consensus rank
#110
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Willie Beavers
Predicted pick
#135
range #61–#233
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
Consensus rank
#115
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Joe Haeg
Predicted pick
#71
range #15–#192
Bust probability· rough estimate
5%
Consensus rank
#122
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Alex Lewis· Offensive line
  • Willie Beavers· Offensive line
  • Joe Haeg· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAlex Lewis50
  • AthleticismAlex Lewis43
  • AgeJoe Haeg100
  • ConsensusAlex Lewis21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Alex Lewis50
  • Breakout ageAlex Lewis50
  • WorkloadAlex Lewis50
  • RAS × productionAlex Lewis35

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Alex Lewis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Willie Beavers
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joe Haeg
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Alex Lewis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Willie Beavers
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joe Haeg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Alex LewisWillie BeaversJoe Haeg· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Alex Lewis

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 age

Willie Beavers

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Joe Haeg

+0.04 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps