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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (ILB, DT)
AM
Antonio Morrison
ILB · Florida
21.4 yo · 6'1" · 232 lb
MI
Matthew Ioannidis
DT · Temple
22.3 yo · — · —
ER
Elandon Roberts
ILB · Houston
22.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Antonio Morrison
Predicted pick
#190
range #107–#241
Bust probability
46%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Matthew Ioannidis
Predicted pick
#123
range #93–#253
Bust probability
33%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Elandon Roberts
Predicted pick
#114
range #84–#244
Bust probability
42%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Antonio Morrison· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Matthew Ioannidis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Elandon Roberts· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAntonio Morrison50
  • AthleticismAntonio Morrison55
  • AgeElandon Roberts92
  • ConsensusAntonio Morrison7
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Antonio Morrison50
  • Breakout ageAntonio Morrison50
  • WorkloadAntonio Morrison50
  • RAS × productionAntonio Morrison100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Antonio Morrison
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Matthew Ioannidis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Elandon Roberts
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Antonio Morrison
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Matthew Ioannidis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Elandon Roberts
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Antonio MorrisonMatthew IoannidisElandon Roberts· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Antonio Morrison

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Matthew Ioannidis

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Elandon Roberts

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age