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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
MK
Miles Killebrew
S · Southern Utah
23.0 yo · 6'2" · 217 lb
JS
Justin Simmons
S · Boston Col.
22.4 yo · 6'2" · 202 lb
WP
Will Parks
S · Arizona
21.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Miles Killebrew
Predicted pick
#113
range #99–#127
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
Consensus rank
#141
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Justin Simmons
Predicted pick
#44
range #8–#177
Bust probability· rough estimate
2%
Consensus rank
#165
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Will Parks
Predicted pick
#179
range #76–#224
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
Consensus rank
#167
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Miles Killebrew· CB / S
  • Justin Simmons· CB / S
  • Will Parks· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMiles Killebrew50
  • AthleticismJustin Simmons95
  • AgeJustin Simmons82
  • ConsensusMiles Killebrew24
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Miles Killebrew50
  • Breakout ageMiles Killebrew50
  • WorkloadMiles Killebrew50
  • RAS × productionMiles Killebrew50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Miles Killebrew
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Justin Simmons
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Will Parks
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Miles Killebrew
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Justin Simmons
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Will Parks
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Miles KillebrewJustin SimmonsWill Parks· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Miles Killebrew

Draftanomics projects Miles Killebrew (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #99-#127, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #98 — don't pay sticker price. The 16-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Justin Simmons

−0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 charting coverage grade career avg; +0.04 charting run def grade career avg

Will Parks

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age