Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
MB
Moritz Boehringer
WR ·
22.5 yo · — · —
TH
Tyreek Hill
WR · West Alabama
22.1 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Tyreek Hill over Moritz Boehringer.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by $22M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and 11-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Moritz Boehringer
Predicted pick
#140
range #119–#161
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Tyreek Hill
Predicted pick
#129
range #108–#150
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$28Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Moritz Boehringer· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyreek Hill· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMoritz Boehringer0
  • AthleticismMoritz Boehringer45
  • AgeTyreek Hill96
  • ConsensusTyreek Hill8
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Moritz Boehringer50
  • Breakout ageMoritz Boehringer50
  • WorkloadMoritz Boehringer100
  • RAS × productionMoritz Boehringer0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Moritz Boehringer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyreek Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Moritz Boehringer
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #180 by MIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #301; model has him #140 — a 161-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyreek Hill
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #771; model has him #129 — a 642-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Moritz BoehringerTyreek Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Moritz Boehringer

Draftanomics projects Moritz Boehringer (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #140 (range #119-#161, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #180 by MIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 161 spots ahead of the room (board #140 vs consensus #301) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Tyreek Hill

Draftanomics projects Tyreek Hill (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #108-#150, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 642 spots ahead of the room (board #129 vs consensus #771), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.